Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 30,778
2 Florida 27,962
3 Arizona 27,218
4 Mississippi 26,172
5 Alabama 23,466
6 Georgia 22,359
7 New York 22,333
8 South Carolina 21,750
9 New Jersey 21,540
10 Nevada 21,322
11 Texas 20,766
12 Tennessee 20,646
13 Rhode Island 19,844
14 District of Columbia 19,256
15 Arkansas 18,746
16 Massachusetts 18,187
17 Iowa 17,888
18 Illinois 17,542
19 Delaware 17,350
20 Maryland 17,304
21 California 16,955
22 Idaho 16,772
23 Nebraska 16,485
24 Utah 15,323
25 North Carolina 14,815
26 Connecticut 14,450
27 Oklahoma 13,435
28 Virginia 13,234
29 Indiana 13,062
30 North Dakota 12,964
31 Kansas 12,949
32 Wisconsin 12,916
33 South Dakota 12,746
34 Missouri 12,429
35 Minnesota 12,346
36 New Mexico 11,634
37 Michigan 10,701
38 Pennsylvania 10,442
39 Kentucky 10,162
40 Ohio 9,821
41 Washington 9,684
42 Colorado 9,627
43 Puerto Rico 9,360
44 Alaska 7,594
45 Wyoming 6,183
46 Montana 6,029
47 Oregon 5,912
48 New Hampshire 5,226
49 West Virginia 5,173
50 Hawaii 4,645
51 Maine 3,224
52 Vermont 2,495

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 277
2 Mississippi 273
3 Tennessee 225
4 Georgia 223
5 South Dakota 220
6 Nevada 214
7 Oklahoma 210
8 Iowa 201
9 Arkansas 199
10 Florida 185
11 Puerto Rico 182
12 Alabama 177
13 Hawaii 177
14 Missouri 174
15 South Carolina 172
16 Illinois 168
17 Texas 162
18 North Carolina 157
19 Louisiana 152
20 California 138
21 Idaho 134
22 Minnesota 134
23 Indiana 132
24 Kansas 130
25 Virginia 120
26 Wisconsin 119
27 Montana 108
28 Utah 106
29 Alaska 102
30 Kentucky 102
31 Maryland 101
32 Nebraska 92
33 District of Columbia 85
34 Arizona 82
35 Ohio 79
36 Michigan 70
37 New Mexico 70
38 Colorado 65
39 Washington 63
40 Wyoming 63
41 Delaware 60
42 Oregon 60
43 West Virginia 53
44 Pennsylvania 50
45 Rhode Island 47
46 New Jersey 36
47 New York 33
48 Massachusetts 30
49 Maine 20
50 New Hampshire 13
51 Vermont 10
52 Connecticut 8

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,795
2 New York 1,669
3 Massachusetts 1,294
4 Connecticut 1,250
5 Louisiana 1,020
6 Rhode Island 972
7 District of Columbia 855
8 Mississippi 752
9 Michigan 666
10 Arizona 656
11 Illinois 640
12 Delaware 616
13 Maryland 610
14 Pennsylvania 597
15 South Carolina 486
16 Florida 480
17 Indiana 478
18 Georgia 472
19 Alabama 410
20 Texas 405
21 Nevada 389
22 New Mexico 355
23 Ohio 340
24 Colorado 334
25 Iowa 328
26 Minnesota 321
27 New Hampshire 315
28 California 307
29 Virginia 289
30 Washington 255
31 Missouri 247
32 North Carolina 244
33 Arkansas 227
34 Tennessee 226
35 Kentucky 201
36 Nebraska 198
37 Wisconsin 187
38 North Dakota 183
39 Oklahoma 183
40 South Dakota 181
41 Idaho 172
42 Kansas 147
43 Puerto Rico 122
44 Utah 120
45 Oregon 100
46 West Virginia 99
47 Maine 97
48 Vermont 92
49 Montana 84
50 Wyoming 63
51 Alaska 41
52 Hawaii 32

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Georgia 7
2 Louisiana 7
3 South Carolina 6
4 Arkansas 5
5 Mississippi 5
6 Texas 5
7 Florida 4
8 Arizona 3
9 Tennessee 3
10 Alabama 2
11 California 2
12 Iowa 2
13 Nevada 2
14 North Carolina 2
15 North Dakota 2
16 Puerto Rico 2
17 West Virginia 2
18 Alaska 1
19 Delaware 1
20 District of Columbia 1
21 Idaho 1
22 Illinois 1
23 Indiana 1
24 Kentucky 1
25 Maryland 1
26 Massachusetts 1
27 Minnesota 1
28 Nebraska 1
29 New Mexico 1
30 Ohio 1
31 Oklahoma 1
32 South Dakota 1
33 Virginia 1
34 Washington 1
35 Wyoming 1
36 Colorado 0
37 Connecticut 0
38 Hawaii 0
39 Kansas 0
40 Maine 0
41 Michigan 0
42 Missouri 0
43 Montana 0
44 New Hampshire 0
45 New Jersey 0
46 New York 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Pennsylvania 0
49 Rhode Island 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 141,085 1 99
Lafayette Florida 138,209 2 99
Lake Tennessee 116,163 3 99
Lee Arkansas 112,002 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 105,574 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 36,275 152 95
Richland South Carolina 23,920 404 87
Orange California 14,471 958 69
York South Carolina 14,211 983 68
Pierce Washington 7,953 1740 44

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,612 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,335 5 99
Richland South Carolina 445 664 78
Davidson Tennessee 353 846 73
Orange California 282 1022 67
Pierce Washington 190 1348 57
York South Carolina 139 1579 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons